Why the Golden State Era is Over

All good things must come to an end, right?

For the past five years, there was one organization that stood out above the rest–an undeniable and overwhelming favorite every time they took the floor. The Golden State Warriors were stacked with three perennial All-Stars who complimented each other beautifully and played unselfish basketball. In addition, they had role players (yea, a former All-Star who would end up winning a Finals MVP for them was just a role player) around them who knew and understood their duties. To top it all off, they had one of the best GMs and executives in the league who seemed to build good teams wherever he went. Their owner also happened to be Billionaire. This was their core. Unstoppable.

Oh wait, did I mention they added a league MVP and 4-time scoring champ who was 7 feet and was a mismatch regardless of who was guarding him? Oh, and a post-Achilles All-Star big man which may have been their only weakness but I guess that doesn’t matter a whole lot.

However, it’s over.

Before I continue, I would like to ensure that no one interprets this wrong and frames me as a “Warriors hater”. Sure, I believe that the Warriors were an incredibly good team that was almost unfair to the rest of the NBA as a fan, but I by no means wished for them to lose two key players in contract years and possible crumble their franchise. There is a key distinction between the two.

Let’s establish what an era is. Merriam-Webster defines an era as a period of time identified by some characteristic figure. In this case, the figure is clearly the dominance of the Golden State Warriors on the world of basketball. In particular, their three championships in the past five seasons. Golden State’s Era was defined by championships, so in order for their era to still exist, they should remain at least title contenders.

This is broad however, so lets place a restriction–they have at most 3 years to win another championship with the same core (Steph, Draymond, Klay?), as all of the great teams (or in the case of Lebron, players) that defined the eras in basketball were ~8 years of championship contention.

In this past series against the Toronto Raptors, GSW suffered two monumental losses–the injury to Klay Thompson and of course, losing the finals and their chance to three-peat and go down as one of the greatest teams to ever play.

As for KD, he is probably leaving anyway.

For the sake of thorough analysis, however, let’s look at two cases–the best case the more likely case– to determine if there is any chance the Warriors can win a championship in the next three years.

Breaking News: KD and Klay are staying put in Northern California, signing long-term contracts that secure the Warriors future for years to come.

WRONG.

While they are both great players, the severity of the injuries that Klay and KD are facing should not be overlooked, as a torn ACL and a ruptured Achilles will keep them out for at least majority of the next season.

Klay’s ACL is the less devastating of the two, but could still end up being problematic for the Warriors moving forward. Although it generally takes 6-9 months to recover from a torn Achilles, Klay, being the resilient player that he is, will most likely be back on the floor closer to the six-month mark. Even then, he will be back only when the calendar flips to 2020. However, Klay’s effectiveness coming off an ACL tear will be in question. Former NBA champion Kendrick Perkins, someone who had to recover from a torn ACL himself, explained that although many players can and do come back in the 6-9 month timeframe, “it will take 22-24 months to return to your normal self. ”

While Klay may not be the ~22 PPG scorer he was prior to the injury, much of his role on offense doesn’t require much athleticism, so I expect he will come back great offensively. On the other hand, his defense will certainly be compromised. Many people overlook the defensive intensity and pressure Klay brings every night for a couple of reasons. First, it is overshadowed by his incredible shooting and pure mechanics. Second, his team tends to play a lot of switching defense so Klay tended to not be on an island every night. Additionally, the Warriors had the luxury of putting 7-foot Kevin Durant on the best player whenever needed. However, Klay Thompson at 6′ 7 with a 6’9 wingspan has incredible size for a guard and was actually named to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team. This aspect of Klay’s game will be heavily missed by the Warriors, especially since his backcourt mate has been known to be a defensive liability.

Multiple reports have confirmed that the Warriors will offer Klay the 5-year/$191 million max contract he is eligible for. As he hobbles up for two of the five, the Warriors will essentially be paying him closer to $60 million a year for the three years he is healthy after the next two seasons when he is on the wrong side of 30.

That is the best case. I’m generally not a pessimistic person, but if Klay doesn’t pan out and return to his All-NBA status, then this will obviously be a massive financial hit that could hinder the Warriors for a long time.

Remember, that was the lesser of the two injuries.

The Achilles injury is one of the most devastating for NBA players. Many of the greats have endured it, including Patrick Ewing, Isaiah Thomas, Kobe Bryant, and Durant’s own teammate, Boogie Cousins. None of these players were ever able to reach the level of success they had prior, but many of them were older when they suffered the injury. Players such as Voshon Lenard and Mehmet Okur were around the same age KD is right now (30) and although they were not superstars, they still saw a significant decline in production. Durant is already confirmed to miss the entirety of next season at the minimum which indicates that this injury is serious, but the Warriors are still expected to offer him a truckload of money, a possible 5-year/$204 million contract by my own calculations (based on his previous salary, achievements, and win shares). This contract would take him into age 35, closer to the end of his career than his prime, and could end up being extremely detrimental for Golden State’s future.

However, Kevin Durant is no ordinary player. His natural scoring ability and lengthy frame make him one of the greatest to ever play the game. However, to recover from an Achilles injury, he must fully heel a tendon that stretches from his lower calf to his heel bone. The surgical process will involve an incision in the back of his lower leg and stitching the torn tendon together with side effects including nerve damage and infection.

There will be many questions surrounding KD’s health and his ability when he comes back, and while he may not be the MVP caliber player he is now, I think he should still be a solid player when he returns.

However, this doesn’t mean that they will be championship contenders in the next three years. Next year will clearly be an off-year for them as they will be without two of their top three leading scorers. The year after should be a transition year, as both KD and Klay start to get healthier and the Warriors get better. However, after that, it may be too late. Steph and KD would be 33, Klay and Draymond 32.

And this is the best possible scenario. Remember the large contracts the Warriors offered to keep them, too.

Breaking News: Kevin Durant signs with the New York Knicks, Klay Thompson re-signs with the Warriors.

Although we don’t know which team KD is going to just yet, there has been much speculation that he will leave Golden State in pursuit of winning a championship on his own team. In particular, the Knicks have come up as a prime destination due to the allure of Madison Square Garden and New York City according to multiple sources.

This means a couple of things. First, the Warriors will not be nearly as dominant and will miss the automatic scoring presence of KD on offense and his versatility on defense. While Steph, Klay, and Draymond is an excellent nucleus, the addition of Kevin Durant makes them unstoppable in all facets of the game.

Second, other teams around the league have gotten better and will continue to improve. The Toronto Raptors just defeated the Golden State Warriors and have possibly the deepest team in the league led by one of the top players in the world. Their Eastern Conference foes, the Milwaukee Bucks and Philadelphia 76ers, will only be more motivated to work hard to achieve the ultimate goal next year. In particular, players with a mentality and work ethic like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid will make tremendous progress in the off-season and their respective teams will feed off of that. In the Western Conference, it is likely Anthony Davis goes to the Los Angeles Lakers to team with another particular all-world talent. Teams such as the Denver Nuggets, Portland Trailblazers, and Houston Rockets will continue to contend and compete for a chance to represent the Western Conference. The combination of the Warriors’ decline and the rise of other teams will be enough to push Golden State out of contention for the near future.

As we await the NBA Draft and the beginning of free-agency in the next couple of weeks, we continue to wonder how this summer could shape the next stage of the NBA. Could we see the end of an era, and the beginning of Zion? As one chapter closes, another one begins.